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Appears in Collections:Economics Working Papers
Peer Review Status: Unrefereed
Title: Comprehensive investment and future well-being in the USA, 1869-2000
Author(s): Greasley, David
Hanley, Nicholas
Kunnas, Jan
McLaughlin, Eoin
Oxley, Les
Warde, Paul
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Citation: Greasley D, Hanley N, Kunnas J, McLaughlin E, Oxley L & Warde P (2013) Comprehensive investment and future well-being in the USA, 1869-2000. Stirling Economics Discussion Paper, 2013-06.
Keywords: sustainable development
natural resources
intangible capital
comprehensive investment
future well-being
US economic growth
JEL Code(s): E01: Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
E21: Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
N11: Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
O11: Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O44: Environment and Growth
Q01: Sustainable Development
Issue Date: 30-Apr-2013
Date Deposited: 12-Apr-2013
Series/Report no.: Stirling Economics Discussion Paper, 2013-06
Abstract: This paper reports long-run tests of how comprehensive investment (CI) predicts future well-being in the USA. Theory suggests that a country with a positive level of CI should experience non-declining future utility. Despite the widespread uptake of CI, previous tests of its predictive power are for short time intervals. We assemble data for increasingly-comprehensive measures of US capital back to 1869 which are used to predict future consumption per capita. Our results show that with the inclusion of natural and human capital, CI can predict changes in future well-being reasonably well over 20 years into the future. Extending CI, to include measures of intangible or social capital, yield results that closely predict consumption over 20-50 years horizons.
Type: Working Paper
Affiliation: University of Edinburgh
University of Edinburgh
University of Waikato
University of East Anglia

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