Transport, the economy and environmental sustainability post-COVID19

Abstract

First paragraph: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought previously unimaginable change to the level of mobility in the economy almost overnight. People who have never before worked from home before were obliged to do so immediately, and business travel stopped almost completely in a matter of weeks. After the slow restart of many transport services, attention turned to understanding the implications of the unprecedented uncertainties about future travel demand exposed by the pandemic. Most obvious is the issue of how long some form of social distancing restrictions and/or other mitigations such as the wearing of face coverings will have to remain in place (and potentially be reintroduced in future) in advance of a reliable vaccine and/or therapeutics becoming available. These restrictions have profound effects on the capacity of many transport services, wider travel demand, and in turn the financial viability of the transport system as we know it. From these critical issues emerge subsequent questions including what a significant loss of confidence in the safety of public transport means for usage far into the future, whether the business model underpinning low-cost aviation can survive, and what the experience of working remotely en masse means for the future of commuting and the structure of our cities.