Preliminary cost estimation of non-ferrous metal production processes

Abstract

This thesis describes the new development of capital and total product cost models for the preliminary cost estimation of non-ferrous metal production processes. It is intended that the cost models are used to produce quick estimates and capable of being applied to various situations for screening alternatives during the early stages of process development. In addition, the cost models are incorporated into computer programs written in BASIC. First, a thorough investigation into the technological background of non-ferrous meted production processes with their economic aspects is given and the cost elements which make up the capital investment of a non-ferrous metal production process are defined. Then, existing estimating techniques are reviewed according to the estimate classification practised by American Association of Cost Engineers (AACE). Particular attention is given to pre-design estimating techniques and their shortcomings or limitations are identified. From the analysis, proposals for a new analogous cost estimating techniques are presented, with careful attention being paid to the definition of the factors in the cost correlations. The derived cost models were tested on recent cost data for primary and secondary production processes, which showed good accuracy results. In parallel with the research, total product cost model is also derived. However, this general model is applicable to the primary production of non-ferrous metal smelting processes as it is mainly based on cost data obtained from primary industries. Although the cost models are derived from limited data (difficulty was encountered in cost data collection, which led to the overall cost-capacity technique), the test results showed promising accuracies. Therefore, suggestions are given for future work when sufficient data are available.