Macroeconomic determinants of the stock market: A comparative study of Anglosphere and BRICS

Abstract

This study examines and compares the macroeconomic determinants of stock markets in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and Anglosphere (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) countries given their different economic structures. Using quarterly data from 1995Q3 to 2023Q3, we employ a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to analyse the long-run relations between real stock prices and the key macroeconomic variables of real GDP, consumer price index (CPI), policy rates, and money supply. Our findings show that in Anglosphere countries, there is a significant positive elastic long-run relation between stock prices and real GDP, and a significant negative elastic relation with CPI. Thus, economic growth enhances stock market performance while inflation adversely affects it in these developed economies. For BRICS countries, we identify a significant positive inelastic long-run relation between stock prices and CPI, indicating that stock markets in these emerging economies act as an inflation hedge. Policy rates and money supply are not significant for either group. These results highlight that different macroeconomic dynamics influence stock markets across developed and emerging economies, implying different risk characteristics. The Anglosphere stock markets are driven by the competing macroeconomic effects arising from GDP and CPI, whereas for the BRICS stock markets, inflationary conditions are of primary importance. The study offers insights for investors and policymakers regarding asset allocation strategies and the formulation of policies tailored to different economic blocs.