Scenario analysis and land use change modelling reveal opportunities and challenges for sustainable expansion of aquaculture in Nigeria

Abstract

This study explores the critical factors of pond aquaculture development in Nigeria, and opportunities and challenges for sustainable expansion of the sector. Aquaculture’s role in food security especially in developing countries has been recognized, including its growth potential. However, Nigeria’s aquaculture development remains slow. Using Delphi technique, key factors influencing aquaculture were identified: availability/cost of aquafeed, land use change, government policy and climate change. Then scenario planning was used to develop four alternative but plausible pathways (scenarios) for Nigerian aquaculture development to 2035, depicting baseline, favourable, somewhat favourable, and unfavourable situations. For each scenario, future pond aquaculture production was estimated by modelling future changes in land use and pond yield potential. Government estimates suggest a potential of producing 2.5 million metric tonnes (t) of fish annually, but our results suggest Nigeria is unlikely to reach this estimate by 2035 without interventions. While the qualitative scenarios are useful to enhance discussions on potential interventions for improving aquaculture production and sustainability, the quantitative projections can be used for evaluating these interventions.