Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/36258
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dc.contributor.authorAslan, Ibrahim Halilen_UK
dc.contributor.authorPourtois, Julie Den_UK
dc.contributor.authorChamberlin, Andrew Jen_UK
dc.contributor.authorMitchell, Kaitlyn Ren_UK
dc.contributor.authorMari, Lorenzoen_UK
dc.contributor.authorLwiza, Kamazima Men_UK
dc.contributor.authorWood, Chelsea Len_UK
dc.contributor.authorMordecai, Erin Aen_UK
dc.contributor.authorYu, Aoen_UK
dc.contributor.authorTuan, Roselien_UK
dc.contributor.authorPalasio, Raquel Gardini Sanchesen_UK
dc.contributor.authorMonteiro, Antônio M Ven_UK
dc.contributor.authorLittle, David C.en_UK
dc.contributor.authorOzretich, Reed W.en_UK
dc.contributor.authorNorman, Rachelen_UK
dc.contributor.editorCoffeng, Luc Een_UK
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-03T00:11:11Z-
dc.date.available2024-10-03T00:11:11Z-
dc.date.issued2024-06-10en_UK
dc.identifier.othere0011836en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/36258-
dc.description.abstractThe geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis’ thermal optimum at 21.7°C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages of S. mansoni and S. haematobium and their obligate host snails, i.e., Biomphalaria spp. and Bulinus spp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number and the prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission of S. mansoni and S. haematobium range between 23.1–27.3°C and 23.6–27.9°C (95% CI) respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperature. Our findings align with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence in SSA. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming for more than half of the schistosomiasis suitable regions with mean annual temperature below the thermal optimum.en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science (PLoS)en_UK
dc.relationAslan IH, Pourtois JD, Chamberlin AJ, Mitchell KR, Mari L, Lwiza KM, Wood CL, Mordecai EA, Yu A, Tuan R, Palasio RGS, Monteiro AMV, Little DC, Ozretich RW & Norman R (2024) Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: Evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted. Coffeng LE (Editor) <i>PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases</i>, 18 (6), Art. No.: e0011836. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011836en_UK
dc.rightsCopyright: © 2024 Aslan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.en_UK
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_UK
dc.titleRe-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: Evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicteden_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pntd.0011836en_UK
dc.identifier.pmid38857289en_UK
dc.citation.jtitlePLoS Neglected Tropical Diseasesen_UK
dc.citation.issn1935-2735en_UK
dc.citation.volume18en_UK
dc.citation.issue6en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.citation.peerreviewedRefereeden_UK
dc.type.statusVoR - Version of Recorden_UK
dc.contributor.funderNERC Natural Environment Research Councilen_UK
dc.author.emailrachel.norman@stir.ac.uken_UK
dc.citation.date10/06/2024en_UK
dc.description.notesAdditional authors: Devin Kirk; Tejas S. Athni; Susanne H. Sokolow; Eliezer K. N’Goran; Nana R. Diakite; Mamadou Ouattara; Marino Gatto; Renato Casagrandi; Fiona Allan; Andrew S. Brierley; Ping Liu,Thiago A. Pereira; Giulio A. De Leoen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationStanford Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationStanford Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationStanford Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationStanford Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationPolitecnico di Milanoen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationStony Brook Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Washingtonen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationStanford Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationStanford Universityen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Sao Pauloen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Sao Pauloen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationNational Institute for Space Researchen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationInstitute of Aquacultureen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationInstitute of Aquacultureen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationMathematicsen_UK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:001246174900001en_UK
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-85197357537en_UK
dc.identifier.wtid2037605en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-9188-167Xen_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-6095-3191en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-3629-0295en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-7398-6064en_UK
dc.date.accepted2024-05-23en_UK
dcterms.dateAccepted2024-05-23en_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2024-09-26en_UK
dc.relation.funderprojectIntegrated risk mapping and targetted snail control to support schistosomiasis elimination in Brazil and Cote d'Ivoire under future climate changeen_UK
dc.relation.funderrefNE/T013710/1en_UK
rioxxterms.apcnot requireden_UK
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen_UK
rioxxterms.versionVoRen_UK
local.rioxx.authorAslan, Ibrahim Halil|0000-0002-9188-167Xen_UK
local.rioxx.authorPourtois, Julie D|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorChamberlin, Andrew J|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorMitchell, Kaitlyn R|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorMari, Lorenzo|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorLwiza, Kamazima M|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorWood, Chelsea L|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorMordecai, Erin A|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorYu, Ao|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorTuan, Roseli|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorPalasio, Raquel Gardini Sanches|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorMonteiro, Antônio M V|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorLittle, David C.|0000-0002-6095-3191en_UK
local.rioxx.authorOzretich, Reed W.|0000-0002-3629-0295en_UK
local.rioxx.authorNorman, Rachel|0000-0002-7398-6064en_UK
local.rioxx.projectNE/T013710/1|Natural Environment Research Council|http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270en_UK
local.rioxx.contributorCoffeng, Luc E|en_UK
local.rioxx.freetoreaddate2024-09-26en_UK
local.rioxx.licencehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/|2024-09-26|en_UK
local.rioxx.filenamejournal.pntd.0011836.pdfen_UK
local.rioxx.filecount1en_UK
local.rioxx.source1935-2735en_UK
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