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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/36762
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dc.contributor.authorReade, J. Jamesen_UK
dc.contributor.authorSingleton, Carlen_UK
dc.contributor.authorBrown, Alasdairen_UK
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-11T01:06:01Z-
dc.date.available2025-03-11T01:06:01Z-
dc.date.issued2021-05en_UK
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/36762-
dc.description.abstractThis study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.en_UK
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherWileyen_UK
dc.relationReade JJ, Singleton C & Brown A (2021) Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines. <i>Scottish Journal of Political Economy</i>, 68 (2), pp. 261-285. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12264en_UK
dc.rights.urihttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserveden_UK
dc.subjectforecastingen_UK
dc.subjectprediction marketsen_UK
dc.subjectregression modelsen_UK
dc.subjectstatistical modellingen_UK
dc.titleEvaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelinesen_UK
dc.typeJournal Articleen_UK
dc.rights.embargodate2999-12-31en_UK
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/sjpe.12264en_UK
dc.citation.jtitleScottish Journal of Political Economyen_UK
dc.citation.issn1467-9485en_UK
dc.citation.issn0036-9292en_UK
dc.citation.volume68en_UK
dc.citation.issue2en_UK
dc.citation.spage261en_UK
dc.citation.epage285en_UK
dc.citation.publicationstatusPublisheden_UK
dc.citation.peerreviewedRefereeden_UK
dc.type.statusAM - Accepted Manuscripten_UK
dc.contributor.funderEconomic and Social Research Councilen_UK
dc.identifier.urlhttps://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/77904en_UK
dc.author.emailcarl.singleton@stir.ac.uken_UK
dc.citation.date04/11/2020en_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Readingen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Readingen_UK
dc.contributor.affiliationUniversity of East Angliaen_UK
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000584825100001en_UK
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-85096634739en_UK
dc.identifier.wtid1969500en_UK
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0001-8247-8830en_UK
dc.date.accepted2020-08-31en_UK
dcterms.dateAccepted2020-08-31en_UK
dc.date.filedepositdate2024-01-10en_UK
rioxxterms.apcnot requireden_UK
rioxxterms.versionAMen_UK
local.rioxx.authorReade, J. James|en_UK
local.rioxx.authorSingleton, Carl|0000-0001-8247-8830en_UK
local.rioxx.authorBrown, Alasdair|en_UK
local.rioxx.projectProject ID unknown|Economic and Social Research Council|http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000269en_UK
local.rioxx.freetoreaddate2270-10-05en_UK
local.rioxx.licencehttp://www.rioxx.net/licenses/under-embargo-all-rights-reserved||en_UK
local.rioxx.filenamestrange_forecasts_rsb.pdfen_UK
local.rioxx.filecount1en_UK
local.rioxx.source1467-9485en_UK
Appears in Collections:Economics Journal Articles

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